If you haven't been worried about the coronavirus before now, you better sit up and take notice. The financial markets are certainly paying attention-- as evidenced by the two-day slide in the stock market, which wiped out all gains year-to-date.
Dr. Nancy
Messonnier, one
of the top officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
warned the public, saying, "We
expect we will see community spread in this country. It's not so much a question of if this will
happen anymore, but rather more a question of exactly when this will
happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness."
But is the Trump administration ready? "I think that's a problem that's going to go away," Trump said about the virus while he was in India-- less than a few days after global infections exploded in South Korea, Italy, Austria, Croatia and Iran. In that same news conference, Trump insisted that "we're very close to a vaccine."
Well that's yet another Trump lie-- there's no available evidence that a vaccine is "close," in fact, most
infectious disease experts say developing a vaccine for the coronavirus is
roughly a year away. Trump also claimed that all the U.S. coronavirus
patients "are getting better ... they're all getting better." However, Dr. Messonnier, told reporters that the
Americans hospitalized in Japan are still
"seriously ill."
So where are we actually? Let's start by going back to early 2018, when the Trump White House
pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs. The Trump administration then also eliminated
$15 billion
in national health spending and cut the global disease-fighting
operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. In addition, the government’s
$30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.
In May 2018, Trump
ordered
the NSC’s entire global health security unit shut down, calling for
reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team
inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security
Advisor John Bolton
pressured
Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team.
Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced. The
global health section of the CDC
was so drastically cut in 2018 that much of its staff was laid off and
the number of countries it was working in was reduced from 49 to merely
10.
Meanwhile, throughout 2018, the U.S. Agency for International
Development and its director, Mark Green, came repeatedly
under fire from both the
White House
and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And though Congress has so far
managed to block Trump administration plans to cut the U.S. Public
Health Service Commissioned Corps by
40 percent, the disease-fighting cadres have steadily eroded as retiring officers go unreplaced.
Obama's "epidemic czar" Ronald Klain has been
warning
for two years that the United States was in grave danger should a
pandemic emerge. In 2017 and 2018, the philanthropist billionaire Bill
Gates met repeatedly with Bolton and his predecessor, H.R. McMaster,
warning that ongoing cuts to the global health disease infrastructure
would render the United States vulnerable to,
as he put it, the “significant probability of a large and lethal
modern-day pandemic occurring in our lifetimes.” And an independent, bipartisan panel formed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies
concluded
that lack of preparedness was so acute in the Trump administration that
the “United States must either pay now and gain protection and security
or wait for the next epidemic and pay a much greater price in human and
economic costs.”
The next epidemic is now here; we’ll soon know the costs imposed by
the Trump administration’s early negligence and present panic. On Jan.
29, Trump announced the creation of the
President’s Coronavirus Task Force,
an all-male group of a dozen advisors, five from the White House staff.
Chaired by Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, the task
force includes men from the CDC, State Department, DHS, the Office of
Management and Budget, and the Transportation Department. It’s not clear
how this task force will function or when it will even convene.
In the absence of a formal structure, the government has resorted to
improvisation. In practical terms, the U.S. government’s public health
effort is led by Daniel Jernigan, the incident commander for the Wuhan
coronavirus response at the CDC. Jernigan is responsible for convening
meetings of the nation’s state health commissioner, but it is unclear if that has happened. In the meantime, state-level
health leaders
are telling reporters that they have been sharing information with one
another and deciding how best to prepare their medical and public health
workers without waiting for instructions from federal leadership.
Preparing a country for infectious disease is a complicated process—to do it right will require sustained attention and resources, and it’s unlikely that a comprehensive plan will materialize in time to make a real difference as the coronavirus spreads.