What's Been Happening in Putin's War: 3/19/22

Russian forces continue to struggle to maintain their offensive in Ukraine.  "Logistical problems continue to best Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine," according to UK intelligence.  Soldiers are not able to effectively resupply their forward troops with basic essentials such as food and fuel, due to their limited mobility and lack of air superiority.  Incessant Ukrainian counterattacks are forcing Russia to divert large numbers of troops to defend their own supply lines-- which is severely limiting Russia's offensive potential.

As many as 53 civilians were killed by Russian forces in the northern Ukrainian city of Chernihiv on Wednesday, according to its regional governor, Vyacheslav Chaus. "The enemy continues systemic artillery and air strikes on the regional center. They are destroying civilian infrastructure," he reported on Telegram.  "We are suffering huge losses. Fifty-three bodies of our citizens were delivered to the city morgues over the past day alone." 13 people waiting in a queue for bread were reportedly killed by Russian shelling.   Local authorities worked to restore power, water and gas supplies to parts of the city despite continued shelling. The governor entered into talks with Russian troops in order to organize a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians from the city.

Life in Kyiv goes on. The city was put under a 35-hour lockdown this week due to the threat of attacks.  Citizens are still able to buy all the essentials – meat, bread and milk – and the phone network is still working normally.  Only portions of the subway are operating, so some are now using the unused tunnels as a means of getting around.  The operating portions run only during daylight hours, with people moving underground overnight for protection. Life is definitely not as bad as other cities in the south and east.

Mariupol and Kharkiv-- two very pro-Russian cities where most citizens speak in Russian instead of Ukrainian-- are still being heavily bombarded by Putin's missiles.  What will be achieved by Russia after the cities are laid to waste is a mystery.   Despite the shells raining down on Kharkiv, Ukraine's army stands firm   Unable to take control of the city, Putin seems intent on destroying it. “Kharkiv is not yet completely destroyed, but we hear constant shelling, constant bombing,” said Natalka Zubar, a 57-year-old IT professional who has remained in the city. “It’s a place of constant airborne terror.”

A charity worker who managed to escape Mariupol described the "hell" and "horror" of that besieged port city. Elderly residents are dying in their homes, with nobody able to reach them because of constant shelling.  He said the city is unrecognizable, with high-rise buildings destroyed, others on fire, and huge craters in the roads from aerial bombardments.  There is no electricity, heating or water, and even the well was hit, he says.  "I can't find the words to describe the horror, the atmosphere, the darkness that reigned over the city of Mariupol - or, to be more precise, the ruins that are left of the city."  Authorities have said that up to 90% of buildings in Mariupol have been destroyed by Russian forces in their daily bombardment of the city.  The mayor of Mariupol is now saying that street fighting in the city center is hampering efforts to rescue hundreds of people trapped inside the basement of a theater was bombed by Russia. 130 people managed to escape initially, with more than 1,000 still in the basement, which withstood the attack.

The mayor of Melitopol (who had been kidnapped by the Russian after the southeastern town fell to Russian forces) was freed after Ukraine agreed to exchange nine captured Russian soldiers to get him back.

The New York Times reported this week on how high numbers of war dead can destroy the will to continue fighting. One recent U.S. intelligence report focused on low morale among Russian troops and described how Russian soldiers are parking their vehicles, abandoning the fight and walking away into the woods.  According to Belarusian media outlet NEXTA, an intercepted Russian forces conversation suggests that desperate Russian troops are "looking for Ukrainian ammunition in order to shoot themselves in the legs and go to hospital". In another intercepted conversation, a Russian soldier is heard saying: "They've been shooting at us for 14 days. We're scared. We're stealing food, breaking into houses. We're killing civilians.

Russian commanders have had to relocate closer to the front lines recently, due to the breakdown in their command and control structure.  This has not been without consequence, as the command staff is now exposed to Ukranian fire.  General Vitaliy Gerasimov, is the third Russian General killed by the Ukrainians since the conflict began.  The other two are  Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky and General Magomed Tushaye. Maj Gen Andrei Kolesnikov, the commander of the Eastern Military District was also killed in the invasion. In addition, five Russian Colonels have also been killed.  American military officials have said that many Russian generals have now resorted to communicating on unsecured phones and radios-- leading to Ukrainian personnel intercepting a call, geolocating it, and attacking his location.  Another General-- Roman Gavrilov, deputy chief of the Rosgvardia force-- was detained amid claims he had 'leaked information' and 'squandered' much-needed fuel.

The southern city of Kherson has been under Russian occupation for two weeks, but residents are still holding daily public protests, despite the warning shots fired at them. Yet despite the citizens' defiance, the city is facing very real problems, as food and medicine run out - "a real humanitarian catastrophe", as the deputy mayor puts it.  In Odessa, the city's elegant boulevards, with their cafes, trams, and theaters, now stand mostly empty and littered with tank traps, while protective sandbags crowd around some of the most famous monuments.

Back in Russia, there are reports that two security generals are now under house arrest. A Russian spy chief (Sergey Beseda) and his deputy (Anatoly Bolyukh) have been placed under house arrest by Putin as the president blames his security services for the resistance met in the Russian invasion.

At a meeting held by a Russian governor at a paramilitary base in Novokuznetsk, mothers of OMON riot police officers angrily confronted the governor, asking whether their sons were “lied to” and were being used as “cannon fodder” in Ukraine. In the meeting, audience members said that everyone was “deceived” about the invasion, and that “our boys” were unprepared and “didn’t know their objective”.  One woman asked where Gov. Tsivilyov’s son was-- he responded, “My son is studying at a university.”When G  ov. Tsivilyov said the military operation “will end soon” a woman interjected, “[You mean] when everyone dies?”

Putin’s henchmen are also complaining about getting constantly trolled with ‘endless photos’ of dead Russian troops.  Even popular state TV pundit Karen Shakhnazarov conceded that, “It seems to me that we’re losing the information war."   There are signs that Russian journalists are getting fed up with Putin's bullshit.  A slew of resignations in recent weeks suggests that some are no longer content to say nothing.  Hours after Russian TV editor Marina Ovsyannikova ran into frame on live TV carrying an anti-war sign, three other resignations came to light. Russian prima ballerina Olga Smirnova resigned from the Bolshoi Ballet, denounced the invasion and left Russia to head the Dutch National Ballet.

Putin is even beginning to lash out of ordinary Russians who are questioning his propaganda,  railing against Russians he said were being provoked by the West into civil unrest, urging loyal Russians to "spit out" those he labeled as traitors among the populace.  He went on to say, "Of course they will try to bet on the so-called fifth column, on traitors - on those who earn their money here, but live over there. Live, not in the geographical sense, but in the sense of their thoughts, their slavish thinking." 

Despite those words, Russians who can’t afford their own jets continue to fight for airline seats to Turkey, Uzbekistan, and other locations still flying to Moscow or St. Petersburg. Airlines still serving Russia have put on extra flights in response to the demand.