Update on Ukraine

Russian forces continue to be entrenched in incompetence.  Some of it is due to extraordinary bad planning that was made on the assumption that Russia would simply roll into Kyiv and enjoy the parades. Russian intelligence was bad, their logistics were miserable, and the performance of their military overall has just been staggeringly poor. YetRussia enjoys a large numerical edge over Ukraine, but so far the quantity factor hasn’t made up for a military that seems intent on doing everything wrong.

March 8: An elderly woman in a metro station turned bomb shelter beneath Kyiv

 As of Saturday, the Ukrainian military of defense reported that they had captured, destroyed, or disabled 2,550 Russian vehicles and aircraft. Oryx has definitively identified at least 1,164 of these vehicles  using photographs and videos of captured or destroyed equipment. This includes an amazing 108 T-72 tanks—the definitive thing you do not want to drive down a Ukrainian roadway. 

March 10: Strollers on a destroyed bridge outside Irpin

 It was also reported that the mayor of Melitopol (in southern Ukraine) was kidnapped by Russia and replaced with a puppet official.  Ivan Fedorov was last seen on Friday evening being dragged away from the city's crisis center by Russian soldiers with a bag over his head.  Ukrainian officials shared a video of the incident.  The prosecutor's office of the Russian-backed breakaway eastern Ukrainian region of Luhansk has reportedly accused him of "terrorist activities".

On the heels of that incident, the Russian military abducted another mayor-- Yevhen Matveyev was seized in the southern town of Dniprorudne, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba tweeted, accusing Russia of "terror" tactics.

 In Kyiv, there is not much change, as the Russians continue to “regroup.” They were silent on the northwest approach (though Ukraine claims to have been quite active), and engaged only in “limited” incursion on the northeastern approach.   Russians don’t seem to have manpower to mount a serious assault, and their goal may simply be to get artillery close enough to indiscriminately shell the civilians in an attempt to terrorize Ukraine into submission.

March 10: The bodies of civilians killed by Russian shelling in the central park of Irpin

Not much has changed in Kharkiv/Sumy (northeast).  Russian forces did not secure any new territory in northeastern Ukraine and may be redeploying forces to attack eastern Kyiv.  In Donbas (east), Mariupol is surrounded, under massive bombardment, running out of food, no electricity, and it’s still holding on. Russia did make a move on the city’s western edge. 

In the Crimea/Kherson (south) region, Russian advanced from Crimea toward Mykolayiv and Zaporizhya and in the east around Donetsk and Luhansk made no progress in the last 24 hours.  More updates here.

March 12: Deribasovskaya, Odessa's main drag, as the city prepares for a Russian assault

And this morning, came reports that Brent Renaud, an award-winning US film-maker whose work has appeared in the New York Times and other outlets, has been killed by Russian forces in the flashpoint town of Irpin, outside Kyiv. A US photographer, Juan Arredondo, was wounded. Renaud, 51, was hit in the neck and died after coming under Russian fire while working, according to local police officials and multiple Ukrainian sources.

The Kremlin continues to issue talking points to state-owned media. “It is essential to use as much as possible fragments of broadcasts of the popular Fox News host Tucker Carlson, who sharply criticizes the actions of the United States [and] NATO, their negative role in unleashing the conflict in Ukraine, [and] the defiantly provocative behavior from the leadership of the Western countries and NATO towards the Russian Federation and towards President Putin, personally.” advises the 12-page document written in Russian.