How is Brexit Going After 30 Days?

Brexit has beached many British fishing boats, as the price of fish has fallen precipitously. Exports to the European Union are Brexit-blighted, with fisherman across Britain hit by new costs and regulations, their catches rotting before they reach EU markets. It’s costing them millions already. 

Many passionate Brexiters now feel betrayed as Boris has failed to secure British fishing rights for its own territorial waters, crippling the British fishing industry.  People were incredulous when foreign secretary Dominic Raab had the guts to publicly claim that Brexit was “a great deal for the fishing industry.”

Other industries are also curious is Boris Johnson’s promised “compensation” for fishing losses will result in a huge subsidy (in perpetuity) for an fishing industry that represents less than a 0.2% sliver of the economy.   The problems exploding in one industry after another, after only four short weeks, are not going away any time soon.

The plight of the fishers is just a vivid emblem for the great blow that is falling on exporting parts of the economy. Michael Gove’s December warnings of “bumpy moments” upped an octave in the first week of this year, to Britain should prepare for “significant border disruption”.

The Sun has warned of Brexit’s threat to the Cheltenham Festival-- last year 180 Irish horses ran, but this year, “Brexit leaves Irish racehorse trainers fearing ‘colossal’ tax bill”.   Likewise, the cost of taking UK showjump horses across the Channel is prohibitive for their British owners.  Motorsport faces similar fees for cars shipped to EU races.

The fashion industry is also in a crisis, paying new duties on its many products manufactured outside the EU.   There is the truck driver crossing the Gibraltar/Spain border whose bottle of Nando’s sauce was confiscated, along with all those ham sandwiches snatched by the Dutch.  The Daily Telegraph reports the flight of Europeans from England (but not from “remain-voting Scotland and Northern Ireland, of course).   Farmers Weekly has been sending up flares about plunging meat prices, due to delayed exports.

UK retailers are seeing a surge in returns from the EU, and they are even considering burning the goods on the mainland, as that option is cheaper than bringing them back to the UK.  "If you're in Germany and buying goods from the UK, you as the German customer are the importer bringing goods into the EU," said Adam Mansell, boss of the UK Fashion & Textile Association (UKFT),. "You then have a courier company knocking on the door giving you a customs clearance invoice that you need to pay to receive your goods."  Many customers automatically reject the goods, refusing to pay the additional surcharges, leaving couriers to take them away.  When goods arrive back at depots on the continent, there is new customs paperwork to complete. "Export clearance charge, import charge arrival, import VAT charge and depending on the goods a rules of origin document as well," said Mansell.  "Lots of large businesses don't have a handle on it, never mind smaller ones."

There are reports of a crisis in the British car industry (which is worth £42bn in exports, employing 823,000 people) as car-part delays are halting production at some factories.  And the services industry is just starting to see problems.  London lost 6.3 billion euros ($7.7 billion) in daily stock trades to EU venues on the first day post-Brexit.  “EU share trading has gone, it will not return,” said David Howson, president of Cboe Europe, the biggest venue for EU shares in London. The firm has seen nearly 95% of this business move, Howson said on Bloomberg Television.  Firms like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have already shifted scores of jobs and hundreds of billions of dollars in assets, while asset managers including Janus Henderson Group Plc and Standard Life Aberdeen Plc are using funds in Luxembourg and Ireland for clients inside the bloc.

And then there is the unfolding Northern Ireland disaster. Stena Line ferries has diverted its Great Britain-Northern Ireland sea crossings to the Rosslare-to-Cherbourg route instead. The Times headline reads “Doldrums ahead in shipping forecast as Brexit complicates customs”.  Trucks carrying exports from North Ireland to England return empty, doubling costs, as English exporters find it too costly to sell to Northern Ireland – and that’s permanent.  The Telegraph has reported that one in 10 trucks are being turned back at the EU border-- and delays will continue, as spot checks at EU borders are standard.

As more shocked Brexiters begin to realize the extent of the chaos they have unleashed, we should expect they will begin to turn on each other-- whether Labour is able to exploit that and step up as an effective alternative-- we'll have to see.