The Ohio River Valley Institute has concluded in a new report that 22 counties that were forecast to be headed for a boom from natural gas extraction. The report—“Appalachia’s Natural Gas Counties: Contributing more to the U.S. economy and getting less in return”—found that what was described by some local officials at the time as a “godsend” and a “game-changer” in the region turned out to be something much different than what was promised.
A report by the American Petroleum Institute in 2010 offered hope for people in the depressed area. API predicted a giant increase in natural gas production, and it was even bigger than expected, with 90% of fracked natural gas in Appalachia now coming from those 22 counties.
But the predicted gain of 450,000 new jobs and consequent thriving of local communities didn’t pan out. Not by a long shot. Far fewer people than API claimed were hired. By 2019, the report states, the number of jobs nationally had increased by 10%, but in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, job growth was below 4%. And it was worse in the 22 gas-producing counties in those states. These had a combined job growth of just 1.7%.
The region's share of the nation’s personal income fell by 6.3%, share of jobs fell by 7.5%, and share of the nation’s population fell by 9.6%. Worse still, while the gross domestic product tripled in those counties from booming natural gas production, measures showed widespread negative impacts one of which is how awful it can be living near a fracking operation.
The report lays the issue quite starkly: “This extreme disconnect between economic output and local prosperity raises the question of whether the Appalachian natural gas industry is capable of generating or even contributing to broadly shared well-being. And, if it is not, should it continue to be the focus of local and regional economic development efforts?”
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