Shortly before 7 p.m. Tuesday, a volley of rockets lit up the darkened sky over Gaza. Videos analyzed by The Associated Press show one veering off course, breaking up in the air before crashing to the ground. Seconds later, the videos show a large explosion in the same area – the site of Gaza’s al-Ahli Arab Hospital. Who is to blame for the fiery explosion has set off intense debate and finger pointing between the Israeli government and Palestinian militants, further escalating tensions in their two week-long war.
The AP analyzed more than a dozen videos from the moments before, during and after the hospital explosion, as well as satellite imagery and photos. AP’s analysis shows that the rocket that broke up in the air was fired from within Palestinian territory, and that the hospital explosion was most likely caused when part of that rocket crashed to the ground.
A lack of forensic evidence and the difficulty of gathering that material on the ground in the middle of a war means there is no definitive proof the break-up of the rocket and the explosion at the hospital are linked. However, AP’s assessment is supported by a range of experts with specialties in open-source intelligence, geolocation and rocketry.
“In the absence of additional evidence, the most likely scenario would be that it was a rocket launched from Gaza
that failed mid-flight and that it mistakenly hit the hospital,” said
Henry Schlottman, a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst and
open-source intelligence expert. Read more of the Associated Press analysis of the incident here.
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