May is traditionally a month for public celebration in
Russia, with massive public processions on May 1 for Labor Day and military
parades on May 9 for Victory Day, a holiday commemorating the Soviet victory
over Nazi Germany. But not this year.
Russia’s biggest trade union cancelled its traditional Labor
Day demonstrations because of the “heightened risk of terrorist activity”,
while regions near the Ukrainian border called off Victory Day parades so as to
“not provoke” the Ukrainian army.
The Russian government warned people across the country
to stay away from military installations on Victory Day, while the hugely
popular Immortal Regiment, an event during which ordinary citizens all over
Russia march with portraits of relatives who died in the second world war, was moved online.
Allegedly the “terrorist” threat comes from Ukraine, but it seems difficult to accept that Russia’s air
defenses could not guarantee the safety of Moscow’s skies during the country’s
biggest patriotic celebration of the year, particularly at a time when Putin
has been stoking Russian nationalist feelings to garner support for his war in
Ukraine.
It seems more likely
that Putin was worried about the potential humiliation of thousands of civilians
marching with the portraits of sons and husbands fallen in Ukraine. While
official Russian figures have pointed to fewer than 6,000 military casualties
in Ukraine, Ukraine claims approximately 150,000 Russian military personnel
have been killed. Even conservative western estimates hover around the 60,000
mark – more than triple the 15,000 Soviet troops killed in the 10-year Afghan
war.
The banning of public events during the May holidays was less
likely out of concern for citizens’ safety, and more to do with Putin’s
paranoid obsession with shutting down any channel for criticism of his war,
even if open support for Ukraine is tiny and the threat of a popular uprising
very remote.
At the same time that public protest is being pre-emptively
suppressed, dissent and conflict continues to grow in military circles. In a
90-minute interview with a military blogger, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the
de facto leader of the Wagner private military company, bemoaned the
catastrophic state of the Russian army, and said that “the time has come when
we have to stop lying to the population of the Russian Federation saying that
everything is OK”. He sarcastically called the war in Ukraine “the so-called
special military operation”, in a veiled criticism of Putin’s ban on the use of
the word war to describe events in Ukraine. Prigozhin also criticised the
defence ministry for withholding ammunition and threatened to withdraw his men
from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which Russia has been trying to take for
nine months.
Russian nationalist pro-war military bloggers also criticise
Putin. The most well-known of these is Igor Girkin (AKA Strelkov), who openly
condemns Putin’s lack of resolve to use Russia’s full military might in
Ukraine, and wages a simultaneous battle of words – for now – with Prigozhin.
On 2 April, when another notorious military blogger, Vladlen Tatarsky, was
assassinated in a bomb attack in a St Petersburg cafe formerly owned by
Prigozhin, the Russian government blamed Ukrainian “terrorists”. Prigozhin
stated that the attack was probably caused by infighting among what he calls
Russian radicals.
Putin has not reacted publicly to any of the military
bloggers or private armies – all armed and violent men – who criticize the way
the war is being fought. But walking around with a cardboard sign calling for
peace can lead to temporary arrest, and being an anti-war intellectual carries
the risk of a 25-year prison sentence.
Russia is not on the verge of a popular revolution, but
Putin still feels threatened enough by public anti-war protests to crack down
at the first sign of peaceful civil dissent. This betrays a fundamental fear of
showing any weakness that his armed critics could exploit. The main message
here is clear: if you want to be safe in today’s Russia, carry a gun. Better
still, create a private army. This will increase your chances of survival the
day the strongman falls.