Ukraine Attacks Raise Doubts About Russian Control Over Crimea

There have come reports of at least two large explosions in occupied Crimea, well beyond the range of Ukrainian artillery or of any ammunition known to be in Ukrainian hands. This time the primary target appears to have been a stockpile of ammunition and equipment near a railway-- and Russia appears to have a ton of materiel (from ammunition to vehicles) sitting right beside the tracks at a site near of the city of Dzhankoi.

A second explosion appears to have taken out an electrical substation in the same area. The railway leading south into Crimea is electrified, so taking out this electrical station may have been targeted at preventing trains from moving in and out of Crimea.

The distance of these explosions from the nearest area of Ukrainian control, like a previous strike in Crimea, generated immediate speculation on just how Ukraine accomplished this attack. Russian-related sources initially attributed the explosion to a drone attack. Others immediately jumped to the conclusion that Ukraine is in possession of longer-range HIMARS rockets. At roughly 200 kilometers from the nearest areas of Ukrainian control, this new explosion is twice as far inside Russian territory as a previous explosion which devastated a Russian air base at Novofedorivka last week. This would still be in the range of the ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System), which can be fired from HIMARS, but despite widespread speculation, there is still no evidence that Ukraine has been sent any of these missiles.  

If this was a drone strike this far into Russian territory, the major signal it sends is simple: Russian air defenses are fucked. Good luck to Putin in selling more Russian weapons systems if this is the level of protection they provide.  However, The New York Times is quoting a Ukrainian official in giving a cause that should be of more concern to the Russian military.  According to the unnamed official, the explosions were generated by “an elite Ukrainian military unit operating behind enemy lines.” Russia’s state news agency seems to agree, as they’ve now labeled the explosion “an act of sabotage.”

If Ukrainian military units are operating deep in Crimea, striking Russian infrastructure, supply depots, and even bases … then exactly what does that say about the area supposedly under Russian control? These attacks make it seem as if Russia not only can’t halt partisan attacks in recently occupied areas of Ukraine, they can’t even secure the territory they’ve claimed for the last eight years as part of Russia.

There is no way of looking at this which isn’t bad for Russia.  It seems that wherever Russia tries to stack more than a few boxes of shells, or park a few vehicles, Ukraine is capable of finding them. And destroying them. No matter how far they are in Russian occupied territory.