Iran Strikes Appear to Be Less Damaging Than Promised

An initial classified U.S. intelligence report suggested the American strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities set back the program by only several months, not completely destroying it as Trump claimed. The assessment indicated much of the enriched uranium was moved before the attacks and that underground facilities were not collapsed. The CIA also stated the program was "severely damaged"

The assessment, which has not been previously reported, was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm. It is based on a battle damage assessment conducted by US Central Command in the aftermath of the US strikes, one of the sources said.

The analysis of the damage to the sites and the impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear ambitions is ongoing, and could change as more intelligence becomes available. But the early findings are at odds with President Donald Trump’s repeated claims that the strikes “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.

In addition, a 400kg stockpile of uranium (enough to make up to 10 nuclear weapons) is unaccounted for after Washington dropped six 'bunker busters' on three Iranian nuclear facilities. The missing uranium is enriched to 60 per cent. It needs to be enriched to about 90 per cent to be used as a nuclear weapon.  There are reports Iran may have moved the stockpile, as well as some equipment, days before the attack to a secret location, a claim repeated by Israeli officials to The New York Times.  Satellite images from before the US' strike showed a line of 16 trucks outside the Fordow nuclear plant, which is built inside a mountain and is considered impervious to most missile attacks.

To put icing on Trump's rapidly-deflating cake, a top commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stunned observers by appearing publicly in Tehran, quashing media reports that he had been killed by Israel in the days leading up to the Trump attack.  Videos rapidly circulated on social media showing General Esmail Qaani celebrating with jubilant crowds at a rally in Tehran to celebrate what Iranian authorities are calling a victory.

Another Iranian official previously reported dead has reemerged. Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and a key nuclear negotiator, was initially reported by outlets  to have been killed in an Israeli strike on his Tehran residence. However, Iranian state media later confirmed that he is "alive and ready to sacrifice." 

With Qaani visibly back in the public eye, Iranian officials are likely to continue leveraging his survival as proof of resilience following the unprecedented Israeli strikes and recent U.S. attacks on Iranian nuclear sites that have proved to be less than what was touted by Trump.